If you have been gambling hockey this year, you discovered that OVERs were cashing at a ridiculous rate in the early going. That trend has levelled off since many teams seem to have discovered their bearings. Even the Philadelphia Flyers, however, have not.
They have cashed 11 OVERs within their 16 matches and have two UNDERs. Their games have experienced by far the highest average of total goals as they have scored the second-most from the league and are tied together with the Calgary Flames for permitting the maximum.
If you had tossed $100 on every Flyers’ OVER this year, it would’ve profited you just seven $100 bills but watch out for high complete matchups as I’ve even cashed a few total props of OVER 6.5 as well as an OVER 7.5 when they played the Leafs last Friday.
I don’t expect this trend changing. Their goaltending and defense are awful, and they simply lost Michal Neuvirth for an extended period and have been made to call up Anthony Stolarz from Lehigh Valley from the AHL. Additionally, they play at the highest-scoring branch in hockey and the Flyers can flat out score.
A surprising trend within the OVER fad is that the O/U is 10-2 if Philly’s matches have closed with a total of 5.5 and can be 1-1-2 when they’ve closed . What this means is that when the Flyers are getting totals of 5.5, Vegas is pretty damn sure their games will get goals.
I suggest riding this OVER whenever the total is 5.5 or the Flyers are up against some other team in the bottom half in targets given up per game.
With that advice, you are going to want to take that OVER if they move up against the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday. The Jets have given up the fifth-most goals in the league and with the two teams’ offenses clicking, we can see a repeat of the game in 2011 that led to a 9-8 Jets’ win.
Maybe keep on the lookout for the ol’ OVER 16.5. I’m of course kidding but I will be making a sizable wager on the OVER 5.5 and I shall be on the watch for props offering bigger totals.
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